Kalshi & Polymarket Trading with AI: The Beginner's Prediction Markets Playbook - Real Data, Real Math, and AI Workflows, No Code Required
English | September 24, 2026 | ASIN: B0HKYKCZ29 | 166 pages | Epub | 658.76 KB
Prediction Markets with AI, No Code RequiredYou don't need to know what will happen. You need to know when the price is wrong.Prediction markets went from under $5 billion a month in trading to more than $45 billion in about a year. Millions of people can now trade on Fed decisions, inflation reports, elections, and tomorrow's temperature on Kalshi, Polymarket US, and brokerage apps like Robinhood - and most of them are doing it on hunches. Kalshi & Polymarket Trading with AI is the careful beginner's alternative: a 160+ page, research-based playbook that shows you how these markets really work and how to use free public data and AI tools to estimate probabilities better than the crowd.Written by the author of Machine Learning for Sports Betting and Algorithmic Sports Betting with AI, this book is built on real numbers, not hype: actual fee formulas, actual settlement rules, a study of more than 300,000 Kalshi contracts, and complete worked examples you can check yourself.Inside, you'll learn:Exactly how contracts, order books, spreads, and fees work - and how to calculate your break-even before every tradeKalshi, Polymarket US, and the brokerage apps compared, plus the 2026 court fights over sports contractsHow to read settlement rules so you never lose on a technicalityWhat the research says about who wins and loses - including why cheap "lottery ticket" contracts have lost over 60% on averageForecasting skills that work: base rates, decomposition, updating, and Brier scoresWhy AI models are overconfident forecasters - and how to use them as a Researcher, Analyst, and Skeptic insteadStep-by-step playbooks for weather (free NWS forecasts), Fed and CPI markets (CME FedWatch and the Cleveland Fed nowcast), elections, sports, and niche marketsKelly-based position sizing with a simple lookup table and exposure limitsA trading journal and weekly routine that measure real skill, not luckTaxes, account security, scams, and the warning signs of problem tradingOne complete week of research and trades, every number shown - including a lossThe book includes 23 copy-paste AI prompts, a glossary, a resource directory of free data sources, and a prompt index.This is not a promise of profit. It's a disciplined, honest process for a genuinely new kind of market.Educational content only. Not financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading event contracts involves risk, including the risk of losing your entire stake. If trading is affecting your life in ways that concern you, the National Council on Problem Gambling is available at 1-800-GAMBLER or ncpgambling.org.If this book helps you trade more carefully, an honest review is the single biggest thing you can do to help an independent author and the next reader deciding whether it's right for them.
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